Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $107,603$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(1.38 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103,594.2}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 39.7)}}\) (asimptote \(103,594.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,640$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(844 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,504.0}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 40.3)}}\) (asimptote \(6,504.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $14,820$ on 2020-05-10

Turkey⮸

Population $84,339,067$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $138,657$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(1.66 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{137,501.8}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 29.2)}}\) (asimptote \(137,501.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,786$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(406 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,928.7}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 29.7)}}\) (asimptote \(3,928.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $42,180$ on 2020-05-10

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,477$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(1.98 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,252.4}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 36.8)}}\) (asimptote \(16,252.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $252$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(38.1 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{244.8}{1 + 10^{-0.066 (t - 25.0)}}\) (asimptote \(244.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,795$ on 2020-05-10

United Arab Emirates⮸

Population $9,890,402$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $18,198$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(216 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{21,565.2}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 65.5)}}\) (asimptote \(21,565.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $198$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(4.03 \times 10^{0.033t}\) (doubling rate \(9.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{392.8}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 52.1)}}\) (asimptote \(392.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $13,196$ on 2020-05-10

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,688$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(32 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{278,782.4}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 122.8)}}\) (asimptote \(278,782.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $58$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(2.31 \times 10^{0.038t}\) (doubling rate \(7.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{69.4}{1 + 10^{-0.067 (t - 29.5)}}\) (asimptote \(69.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,901$ on 2020-05-10

Cyprus⮸

Population $1,207,359$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $898$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(161 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{875.6}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 28.2)}}\) (asimptote \(875.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $16$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(6.04 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15.1}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 12.3)}}\) (asimptote \(15.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $481$ on 2020-05-10

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $39,048$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(606 \times 10^{0.031t}\) (doubling rate \(9.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{58,239.3}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 54.0)}}\) (asimptote \(58,239.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $246$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(26.8 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{325.4}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 33.2)}}\) (asimptote \(325.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $27,345$ on 2020-05-10

Philippines⮸

Population $109,581,078$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $10,794$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(1.21 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,349.8}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 34.8)}}\) (asimptote \(11,349.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $719$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(70.7 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{743.8}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 34.7)}}\) (asimptote \(743.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,151$ on 2020-05-10

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

China recovered 100%
Thailand recovered 89%
Korea, South recovered 87%
Taiwan* recovered 78%
Uzbekistan recovered 61%
Israel recovered 51%
Turkey recovered 48%
Malaysia recovered 41%
Japan recovered 41%
Georgia recovered 14%

China⮸

Population $1,439,323,776$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $84,010$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(4.89 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(104.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{82,451.8}{1 + 10^{-0.092 (t - 15.0)}}\) (asimptote \(82,451.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-01-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,637$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(1.55 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,448.9}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 28.7)}}\) (asimptote \(4,448.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $206$ on 2020-05-10

Thailand⮸

Population $69,799,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,009$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(917 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,929.0}{1 + 10^{-0.074 (t - 19.1)}}\) (asimptote \(2,929.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $56$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(22.9 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{54.6}{1 + 10^{-0.075 (t - 10.4)}}\) (asimptote \(54.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $159$ on 2020-05-10

Korea, South⮸

Population $51,269,185$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $10,909$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(5.03 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,401.8}{1 + 10^{-0.069 (t - 15.2)}}\) (asimptote \(10,401.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $256$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(57.8 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(31.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{259.6}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 32.7)}}\) (asimptote \(259.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,021$ on 2020-05-10

Taiwan*⮸

Population $23,816,775$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $440$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(88.8 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{430.7}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 34.6)}}\) (asimptote \(430.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6$ on 2020-05-10

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $68$ on 2020-05-10