Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $107,603$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(1.38 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103,594.2}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 39.7)}}\) (asimptote \(103,594.2\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,640$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(844 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,504.0}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 40.3)}}\) (asimptote \(6,504.0\))
Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $14,820$ on 2020-05-10
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $138,657$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(1.66 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{137,501.8}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 29.2)}}\) (asimptote \(137,501.8\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,786$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(406 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,928.7}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 29.7)}}\) (asimptote \(3,928.7\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $42,180$ on 2020-05-10
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $16,477$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(1.98 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,252.4}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 36.8)}}\) (asimptote \(16,252.4\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $252$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(38.1 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{244.8}{1 + 10^{-0.066 (t - 25.0)}}\) (asimptote \(244.8\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,795$ on 2020-05-10
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $18,198$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(216 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{21,565.2}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 65.5)}}\) (asimptote \(21,565.2\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $198$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(4.03 \times 10^{0.033t}\) (doubling rate \(9.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{392.8}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 52.1)}}\) (asimptote \(392.8\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $13,196$ on 2020-05-10
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $8,688$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(32 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{278,782.4}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 122.8)}}\) (asimptote \(278,782.4\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $58$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(2.31 \times 10^{0.038t}\) (doubling rate \(7.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{69.4}{1 + 10^{-0.067 (t - 29.5)}}\) (asimptote \(69.4\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $5,901$ on 2020-05-10
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $898$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(161 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{875.6}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 28.2)}}\) (asimptote \(875.6\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $16$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(6.04 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15.1}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 12.3)}}\) (asimptote \(15.1\))
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $481$ on 2020-05-10
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $39,048$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(606 \times 10^{0.031t}\) (doubling rate \(9.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{58,239.3}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 54.0)}}\) (asimptote \(58,239.3\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $246$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(26.8 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{325.4}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 33.2)}}\) (asimptote \(325.4\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $27,345$ on 2020-05-10
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $10,794$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(1.21 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,349.8}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 34.8)}}\) (asimptote \(11,349.8\))
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $719$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(70.7 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{743.8}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 34.7)}}\) (asimptote \(743.8\))
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $8,151$ on 2020-05-10